奥门新萄京娱乐场美国老工业基地的复兴

2019-07-07 02:14栏目:奥门新萄京娱乐场
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大片杂乱的废地旁是西安最落魄的居民区黑泽尔Wood,这里一栋屋家不到5万英镑。沿河一齐向东到内布Russ加州的不在少数镇子,像McGee斯Porter和迪凯纳等,其存在的经济原因——钢铁和煤炭——都已成过去的事情。

What, then, is to be done? Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal, said: “We were promised flying cars, and instead what we got was 140 characters.” He was right of course; Twitter is not comparable to the invention of printing. Yet in another sense, he was wrong. We live in a world where everyone with a grievance wields more power in the palm of their hands than the computers that sent Apollo 14 into orbit. Ours is a super-democratic age. Ford does not believe technological progress can be stopped, nor that it would it be desirable to try. Yet the robot economy is inexorably squeezing our rewards in the jobs market. Ford’s answer is to pay every adult a minimum basic income — or a “citizen’s dividend”. There is logic to his remedy but not much realism. My forecast is that cars will fly before that happens.

These trends have contributed to record levels of income inequality. “There is not a lot of disagreement that technology is changing the skills and occupations in demand,” says Tyson. “And that will continue to increase income inequality.”

Or take social media. In 2006, Google bought YouTube for $1.65bn. It had 65 employees. The price amounted to $25m per employee. In 2012, Facebook bought Instagram, which had 13 employees, for $1bn. That came to $77m per employee. In 2014, it bought Whats­App, with 55 employees, for $19bn, at a staggering $345m per employee.

离开黑泽尔Wood5英里的Lawrence维尔已改为美利哥自行驾车轿车发展的为主。优步先进技能使用了多少个工业建筑;自动开车初创公司阿尔戈AI和欧若拉立异都在紧邻,连Carter彼勒都开设车间,开垦自动反铲开采机和其它大型器械,它们有一天能够活动运营。

Ford finds two big holes in this Panglossian outlook. In contrast to earlier disruptions, which affected particular sectors of the economy, the effects of today’s revolution are “general-purpose”. From janitors to surgeons, virtually no jobs will be immune. Whether you are training to be an airline pilot, a retail assistant, a lawyer or a financial trader, labour-saving techno­logy is whittling your numbers — in some cases drastically so. In 2000, financial services employed 150,000 people in New York. By 2013 that had dropped to 100,000. Over the same time, Wall Street’s profits have soared. Up to 70 per cent of all equity trades are now executed by algorithms.

It’s an impressive scene highlighting signs, if you know where to look, of some of the world’s leading research into robotics and automation. But it is also almost deadly quiet. There are a few cars in the parking lots—those of the engineers and programmers involved in the various robotic ventures, and probably some visitors. Beyond that, there are no signs of workers anywhere.

Almost any job that involves sitting in front of a screen and manipulating information is threatened
But it is Ford’s second point that is the clincher. By skewing the gains of the new economy to a few, robots weaken the chief engine of growth — middle-class demand. As labour becomes uneconomic relative to machines, purchasing power diminishes. The US economy produces more than a third more today than it did in 1998 with the same-sized labour force and a significantly larger population. It still makes sense for people to obtain degrees. Graduates earn more than those who have completed only high school. But their returns are falling. The median pay for US entry-level graduates has fallen from $52,000 in 2000 to $46,000 today. It has stagnated for postgraduates. Education is by no means a catch-all solution, says Ford. Not everyone can get a PhD. Assuming that highly skilled jobs can take up the slack is “ana­logous to believing that, in the wake of the mechanisation of agriculture, the majority of displaced farm workers would be able to find jobs driving tractors,” he says.

但Bill·Clinton总理的上位经济顾问和加州大学Berkeley分校讲明Laura·Tyson问出全部人心中的标题:万一那回大家想要的商品和劳务偏偏没有须求太多少人力生产又该怎样?“我们想,那是技能率先次裁减对工人的净须要,”她说。

Though Ford is a software entre­preneur, it is easy to dismiss his prognosis as the rantings of a latter-day Luddite. That is how many responded to his last book The Lights in the Tunnel (2009), which warned of a future in which even highly skilled occupations were vulnerable. Rise of the Robots is Ford’s answer to those critics. Unlike his first book, which was based on a thought experiment about tomorrow’s world, this one is grounded in today’s economy. It is well researched and disturbingly persuasive.

This has drawn billions of dollars from Silicon Valley and elsewhere, a welcome development in a city whose economy has been moribund for decades. And the effects are visible. Self-driving cars out for a test ride are a common sight, as are lines outside the trendy restaurants in what civic boosters call “Robotics Row.”

Review by Edward Luce

那所城市和全国各市面前境遇的挑衅不仅仅是让更八个移山插足到高技巧阵容中来,还包罗增加高薪岗位的需求。先进机器人可以是毕尔巴鄂等都会的厂子当代化,使创造业更有竞争力。

Such riches are little comfort to the thousands of engineers who cannot find work. Facebook’s data servers are now managed by Cyborg, a software programme. It requires one human technician for every 20,000 computers. Almost any job that involves sitting in front of a screen and manipulating information is either disappearing, or will do soon. Offshore workers in India are just as vulnerable as their counterparts in the west. China is the fastest- growing market for robots. No human can compete with the relentlessly falling costs of automation. Software can now drive cars and mark student essays.

俄勒冈大学管农学家梅丽莎·Kearney和凯瑟琳·亚布拉罕切磋背后的因由。他们认为有多少个原因,但机器人和自动化是最器重的。大多一向不高校学位的人干脆以为找到高薪专门的学业的机缘太模糊了,干脆就别去找了。

Ford’s contention is that our current technological revolution is different from earlier ones. Most economists would disagree. Their view is that today’s displacement is similar to the shift from agriculture to industry. Roughly half of Americans were employed on farms in 1900. Today they account for just 2 per cent of the workforce. Just as ex-farm labourers found work in the factories, so laid-off manufacturing workers were re-employed in the service industries. The IT revolution will be no different, economists say. It is all part of the natural cycle of creative destruction.

麦肯锡全球研讨所推断,大家经济体中约50%的的行事将达成自动化。但那个总结结果平常被误读。研商所主席James·曼伊卡说,八分之四仅仅描述了在现存和后来本领水平下可被自动化的“技术可能”。真正消失岗位的多寡要看机器替代人工的资本和低收入。

Martin Ford has seen the future, and it doesn’t work. To be more precise, it generates wealth while obliterating demand for work. “Go West, young man”, was the career advice of the 19th century. Today’s equivalent is “get an engineering degree”. Alas, the latter is not as rewarding as the former. A third of Americans who graduated in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and maths) are in jobs that do not require any such degree. Up and down the US there are programmers working as fast-food servers. In the age of artificial intelligence, they will only drift further into obsolescence, says Ford.

她描述的片段剧情是所谓的生产力谬论:理论上说,大数额、自动化和人工智能让商业活动生产力越来越高,促进经济并成立出越多岗位,抵消流失的职位,可那未尝发生。有个别军事学家感觉那可是是光阴难点,就算供给非常多年。

原标题:美利坚合众国老工业集散地的苏醒 | 斯坦福技能商酌

Part of what he’s describing is the so-called productivity paradox: while big data, automation, and AI should in theory be making businesses more productive, boosting the economy and creating more jobs to offset the ones being lost, this hasn’t happened. Some economists think it’s just a matter of time—though it could take many years.

机器人步入曾经的炼钢厂,那所城市中大约从不人会忽略这种象征意义。毕尔巴鄂重生,使用来源其高校中的自动化、机器人和人造智能,尤其是Carnegie梅隆学院,正在构建一种高科技(science and technology)经济。

Gauging the net gain or loss of jobs due to robotics and AI is a tricky business. But it’s clear that the kinds of jobs in demand are changing as the need for manual labor declines and that for digital and human skills soars.

The gem of the redevelopment effort is Mill 19, the former coke works. A structure more than a quarter-­mile long, sitting amid the empty fields, it has been stripped clean to a three-story metal skeleton. Crews of workers are clearing away remaining debris and preparing the building for its reincarnation. By next spring, if all goes according to plan, its first occupant will move in: the Advanced Robotics for Manufacturing Institute.

千古几十年,自动化和机器人终将消除了广大干活,非常在创建业领域。最早一些量化学工业业机器人的熏陶的钻研包罗麻省理工科种下愿望的达龙·阿Simon格鲁及其同事依照1988年到二零零七年的数码所做的剖析,深入分析开采车间中每出现四个机器人,大致6个人失去工作。那表示一九八七年到二〇〇六年化为乌有了67万个岗位,以二〇一四年机器人在美利坚合众国动用程度计算,150万任务流失。

“The naïve view among macroeconomists for several decades has been that technology will always create jobs,” says Acemoglu. “The alarmists’ is that this time is different and it will destroy jobs.” Though in the past the economic benefits from new technologies have always been enough to create more jobs than were lost, he says, “lately, for a variety of reasons, there has been a much more job-destroying face to technology.”

就算非常多老居民怨声载道工夫集团总局和试验场周边的房价狂涨,他们也会告诉您,那是他们那辈子看到那么些都市的最好时间。

其一现象令人回想深远,假设你找对角度,能够观望世界上起先进的机器人和自动化切磋。但这里死一般寂静。停车场里唯有十分少几辆车,都是供职于种种机器人集团的技术员和技士,恐怕还或许有局部旅客。除却,未有工人的征象。重回腾讯网,查看更加多

奥门新萄京娱乐场 1

That criticism resonates in a place that prides itself as a working-class city with strong unions and a rich history of progressive politics. Mayor William Peduto helped attract Uber to the city, but he has since soured on the San Francisco–based company.

近期民意考察展现,超越50%的斯特拉斯堡居民料定协理亚马逊(亚马逊(Amazon))将巴尔的摩定为第二总局。这比亚马逊(亚马逊)名单上的其余都市多得多,在奥斯汀和亚特兰洲大学,独有大概百分之四十的食指应接这一举止。

  1. 那并不令人吃惊:亚马逊(亚马逊(Amazon))承诺制造5万个职业岗位,投资50亿加元,那足以彻底改变沈阳。据传该城市拿出莫农加Sheila河畔的一块地吸引亚马逊(Amazon),当中就归纳19车间。

But the factory jobs lost through the years aren’t coming back. As a country, we’re struggling to imagine how to build an economy with plenty of good jobs around AI and automation.

This movie has, of course, played out before. In 1900, about 40 percent of US workers were on farms; today fewer than 2 percent are. In 1950, about 24 percent of the jobs were in manufacturing; today around 9 percent are. Similar shifts are occurring in other developed countries. But today’s changes are happening faster and more broadly than before, leaving little time for people to adapt.

There is no sillier—or more disingenuous—debate in the tech community than the one over whether robots and AI will destroy jobs or, conversely, create a great abundance of new ones. In fact, the outcome depends on various economic factors. And how it will play out as the pace of AI intensifies, no one knows.

站在劳伦斯维尔街区的建筑房顶上能够眺望现在。一层是欧若拉自动开车小车的停车区,草地外是一台Carter彼勒反铲机,那是该铺面包车型大巴机动驾车研究开发主题。更远处是拦起来的测量试验场,旁边是另一家旧钢铁厂,建筑属于Carnegie机器人,该公司正为海军开辟炸弹清除机器人。背景是国家机器人宗旨——另一栋宏伟的建造,在此之前是行业革命机器人创设商讨所所在地,后面一个搬进了19车间。

Many are simply giving up on finding a decent job. Labor-force participation—basically, the proportion of people working or seeking work—is showing a troubling drop, especially for men aged 25 to 54.

In the US, demand for low-­paying work in places like warehouses and restaurants is growing; so is demand for well-paying work in occupations requiring lots of technical skills, such as programming. At the same time, many traditionally middle-class jobs in areas like manufacturing and data processing are shriveling.

But if Amazon picks Pittsburgh, that’s likely to exacerbate the anxiety over how to match residents with new high-tech jobs. “There is nowhere near enough people in the city and the region with the technical skills,” says CMU’s Moore. “We’re great in terms of the rare genius leaders, but [Pittsburgh] really needs to skill up the local population to take part in this.”

Automation and robots have certainly wiped out many jobs over the last few decades, especially in manufacturing. In one of the first attempts to quantify the impact of industrial robots, research by Daron Acemoglu at MIT and his colleagues, based on data from 1990 to 2007, found that for every robot on the factory floor, some six jobs are lost. That means as many as 670,000 jobs for the years that they looked at, and as many as 1.5 million jobs at 2016 levels of robot usage in the US.

Lawrenceville, five miles from Hazelwood, has become a center for US development of self-driving cars. Uber Advanced Technologies occupies a handful of industrial buildings; self-driving startups Argo AI and Aurora Innovation are nearby. Even Caterpillar has set up shop, working on autonomous backhoes and other heavy machines that could one day operate themselves.

缘由:高自杀率、药物成瘾和无节制饮酒,凯斯和迪顿以为那是“失望病”,因为她俩看起来和本身贫穷毫无干系,而是失望。期望爆发反败为胜,大家正在开采她们不会比父母过得越来越好了。

这引发了来自硅谷等地的数十亿新币,在八个几十年来经济一蹶不振不振的都会中,那是令人款待的进展。效果是显眼的。试验场开出去的机关开车小车司空见惯,在高等旅馆向外排水队,被本地扶助者称为“机器人队列”。

Melissa Kearney and Katharine Abraham, economists at the University of Maryland, have looked at why. They think there may be several causes, but they say robots and automation are a critical one. Many people without a college degree simply think the prospects of finding a well-­paying job are too slim to make it worth looking.

能够创制出多少新岗位更难以鲜明。多数本领职员,越发是机器人开采者,他们相信提高组织带头人造出大方新岗位。即使迄今停止,那绝非发出,在美利坚同盟军经济的最大机关中大约未有取得任何突破,如健康卫生领域。

但最近几年失去的工厂岗位不会回到了。大家很难想象怎么着塑造三个经济体,人工智能和自动化带了无数好职位。

自动化恐怕要有的为这一个社会难题担负。但如果阿西莫格鲁那样的发明家说得对,创制越来越多好专门的学问的钥匙并不是减弱这么些提高,而是进行更加好的本子,让它们更是便捷地在总体经济体得以利用。

While many longtime residents complain of skyrocketing home prices near the tech firms’ headquarters and test facilities, they’ll also tell you these are the best days the city has seen in their lifetimes.

These days the old steel site, called Hazelwood Green by its developers, is coming back to life. At one edge, fenced off from prying eyes, is a test area for Uber's self-driving cars. A new road, still closed to the public, traverses the 178 acres of the site, complete with parking signs, fire hydrants, a paved bike path, and a sidewalk. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture it bustling with visitors to the planned park along the riverfront.

And not far from the city and its elite universities, in areas where the main hope for prosperity lies in coal and natural gas from fracking rather than self-driving cars, well-­paying jobs are scarce and towns are being devastated by opioid addiction.

Automation is changing work

“硅谷格局尚未把人虚拟在内。它缅怀的是危机投资能获得多大回报,”他如今领受《新加坡国立技巧钻探》访问时说。“像南京和马普托这种地方,我们思量职业的以后时,大家想要知道工人的前途是怎么。”

The culprits: high rates of suicide, drug addiction, and alcoholism, which Case and Deaton call “diseases of despair” because they don’t seem related to poverty per se, but rather to disappointment; in a reversal of expectations, people are realizing they won’t be better off than their parents.

现行反革命,被开垦商成为“黑泽尔Wood银色”的老钢厂区正在恢复生机元气。一边是优步自动开车小车的试验场,拦起来防人窥探。一条还未开放的新路穿过178英里的老钢厂区,装有好多停车标识、消防龙头、自行车道和人行道。用不着脑补就足以想象布置中的河滨公园中众多的情景。

Princeton economist Anne Case and her coauthor Angus Deaton have identified what’s likely a related trend. They found that mortality is rising among middle-aged white people in the US with a high school diploma or less.

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